MARCH 2020: Residential Real Estate Market Recap – Augusta County, Waynesboro & Staunton

Posted on May 11, 2020 by katmcnicholas

03.2020_SNAPSHOT

RESIDENTIAL SALES

The number of sales hit an all-time high in 2005, with a total of 1598 closed transactions and a low in 2010, with 935. the market has gradually improved since then…with 2019 surpassing 2005’s sales;
- 2015 = 1489 sales
- 2016 = 1511 sales
- 2017 = 1581 sales
- 2018 = 1573 sales
- 2019 = 1747 sales
2020 ‘s Spring market started early and strong, with properties going under contract in Fred, resulting in a 5 year record breaking high in closed transactions. (FYI – Last year’s Spring market sales were strong in April; implying the initial buying process taking off in March.) Mar ’20 (136) is 22.5% INCREASE when compared to last Mar ’19 (111).
Mar 2020 12 Mo. Running Total (1892) displays a slight 2.6% INCREASE over last month’s total of (1844), and a 12% INCREASE from Mar 2019’s 12 Mo. Running Total (1687 sales). Mar 2020 YTD sales (324), is a 8.3% INCREASE from Mar 2019 YTD sales (299).

LOW HOUSING INVENTORY

How low can you go?…Historic lows in inventory began back in 2016, truly felt the impact during the 3Q 2016 buying season. the end of 2016 deemed itself a “price adjusting” year, cleaning out stale properties. since then, the inventory has continued to be squeezed, opening-up a tinie bitin the Spring market…but swallowed up quickly & further depleted until the end of each year. In 2020, our inventory is at its lowest with 305 active properties.

Mar 2020 with 305 properties is a 13% < Mar 2019 (350) which is 29% < Mar 2018 (430) which is 47% < Mar 2017 (570) which is 59% < Mar 2016 (750).

*Historically, the increase in Spring inventory began in April, but in the current COVID19 pandemic, many homesellers are taking a “wait-and-see” stance. With less inventory available, we will see how that affects the amount of properties going Under Contract, therefore affecting the sales numbers moving forward.

**This could be even better news for Sellers placing their homes on the market…not so great for Buyers.

AVERAGE SALES PRICES

With low supply, comes high demand…reflected in the increase in Sales Prices. We noticed an average of 8% INCREASE over the course of last year, (varying higher/lower depending on the price bracket.) Mar 2020’s ASP ($217,173) is a 2.3% DECREASE from Mar 2019 ($222,352) and a 7.2% DECREASE from last month, Feb 2020 ($234,121). It has been somewhat of a “yo-yo” for last 6 months, so taking a look at the…

The 12 Month ASP is a more accurate predictor of sales trends. Mar ’20 12 Mo ASP ($226,843) displays a 4.3% INCREASE when compared to last year’s 12 Mo ASP ($217,491). This is more consistent with last month’s approximate year-over-year 12 Mo ASP’s 5% INCREASE. Overall, we have flattened out for the moment. The good news is that with the steady gains since 2016, many properties are back to their 2005-2007 market values.

Unfortunately, what is NOT factored into the average sales price, is the trend of Seller paid closing costs. 52% of March 2020’s sales included the Seller paying, on average, $5195 towards the Purchaser’s settlement fees at closing.

DAYS ON MARKET

03.2020_DOM

Average Days on Market (DOM) for 2005 was 101 days. and steadily increased to an all time high of 177 days in April 2013. Low inventory has considerably dropped this number. 2019’s yearly average was 55 days, with a median DOM of 20 days. (* Normal Market is considered to be 90 days.)

March 2020 STATS: Average 59 days / Median 19 days
% of Mar Sales “Under Contract” within..
- 15 Days or less = 55%
- 30 Days or less = 65%
- 45 Days or less = 69%

Interestingly, the available ACTIVE properties for Mar 2020 have been on the market 143 DOM. That’s 84 more days than the SOLD DOM for the month. Indicating, that most properties properly priced are moving quickly, while the others are sitting on the market getting stale.

Have further questions not mentioned in this post? Feel free to give me a jingle! Until April’s update…Take care & stay safe out there!

[The information presented is deemed accurate, but not guaranteed. Data sourced from the Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS (GAAR) for Residential, Single Family homes in Augusta County, Waynesboro & Staunton Virginia; YTD 2020.]

FEBRUARY 2020: Residential Real Estate Market Recap – Augusta County, Waynesboro & Staunton

Posted on March 21, 2020 by katmcnicholas

RESIDENTIAL SALES

02.2020_SalesTransactions

The number of sales hit an all-time high in 2005, with a total of 1598 closed transactions and a low in 2010, with 935. the market has gradually improved since then…with 2019 surpassing 2005’s sales;
- 2015 = 1489 sales
- 2016 = 1511 sales
- 2017 = 1581 sales
- 2018 = 1573 sales
- 2019 = 1747 sales
2020 has began mimicking the past, with the organic holiday downshift. (Fyi* Last year’s Spring market sales were strong in April. Displaying the initial buying take off beginning in March.) Comparable strong sale #’s pushed through-out the 2019 year. Feb ’20 (88) is a FLAT compared to last Feb ’19 (88).
Feb 2020 12 Mo. Running Total (1844) displays a slight 5 home DECREASE over last month’s total of (1850), and a 10.6% INCREASE from Feb 2019’s 12 Mo. Running Total (1668 sales).

LOW HOUSING INVENTORY

02.2020_Inventory

Feb 2020 with 305 properties is a 13% < Feb 2019 (350) which is 32% < Feb 2018 (450) which is 49% < Feb 2017 (595) which is 59% < Feb 2016 (735).

AVERAGE SALES PRICES

02.2020_AveSalesPrice

With low supply, comes high demand…reflected in the increase in Sales Prices. We noticed an average of 7% INCREASE over the course of last year, (varying higher/lower depending on the price bracket.) Feb 2020’s ASP ($234,121) is a 3.1% INCREASE from Feb 2019 ($227,046) and a huge 15.5% INCREASE from last month, Jan 2019 ($202,633).

The 12 Month ASP is a more accurate predictor of sales trends. Feb ’20 12 Mo ASP ($227,596) displays a 5.3% INCREASE when compared to last year’s 12 Mo ASP ($216,130). This is a more consistent with last month’s approximate year-over-year 12 Mo ASP’s 6% INCREASE. Overall, we have flattened out for the moment. The good news is that with the steady gains since 2016, many properties are back to their 2005-2007 market values.

Unfortunately, what is NOT factored into the average sales price, is the trend of Seller paid closing costs. 47% of February 2020’s sales included the Seller paying, on average, $5154 towards the Purchaser’s settlement fees at closing.

DAYS ON MARKET

02.2020_DOM

Feb 2020 STATS: Average 58 days / Median 26 days
% of Feb Sales “Under Contract” within..
- 15 Days or less = 57%
- 30 Days or less = 63%
- 45 Days or less = 67%

Interestingly, the active properties for Feb 2020 have been on the market 144 DOM. That’s 86 more days than the SOLD DOM for the month. Indicating, that most properties properly priced are moving quickly, while the others are sitting on the market getting stale.

JANUARY 2020: Residential Real Estate Market Recap – Augusta County, Waynesboro & Staunton

Posted on March 20, 2020 by katmcnicholas

2020_SNAPSHOT

RESIDENTIAL SALES

01.2020_SalesTransactions

The number of sales hit an all-time high in 2005, with a total of 1598 closed transactions and a low in 2010, with 935. the market has gradually improved since then…with 2019 surpassing 2005’s sales;
- 2015 = 1489 sales
- 2016 = 1511 sales
- 2017 = 1581 sales
- 2018 = 1573 sales
- 2019 = 1747 sales
2020 has began mimicking the past, with the organic holiday downshift. (Fyi* Last year’s Spring market sales were strong in April. Displaying the initial buying take off beginning in March.) Comparable strong sale #’s pushed through-out the 2019 year. Jan ’20 (95) is a 6.7% INCREASE compared to last Jan ’19 (89).
Jan 2020 12 Mo. Running Total (1850) displays a slight 5 home DECREASE over last month’s total of (1845), and a 10.6% INCREASE from Jan 2019’s 12 Mo. Running Total (1668 sales).

LOW HOUSING INVENTORY

01.2020_Inventory

Jan 2020 with 335 properties is a 11% < Jan 2019 (375) which is 27% < Jan 2018 (460) which is 41% < Jan 2017 (565) which is 55% < Jan 2016 (750).

AVERAGE SALES PRICES

01.2020_AveSalesPrice

With low supply, comes high demand…reflected in the increase in Sales Prices. We noticed an average of 7% INCREASE over the course of last year, (varying higher/lower depending on the price bracket.) Jan 2020’s ASP ($202,633) is a 12.6 DECREASE from Jan 2019 ($232,049) & a 16% DECREASE from last month, Dec 2019 ($243,458).

The 12 Month ASP is a more accurate predictor of sales trends. Jan ’20 12 Mo ASP ($227,451) displays a 6% INCREASE when compared to last year’s 12 Mo ASP ($214,869). this is a more consistent with last month’s approximate year-over-year 12Mo ASP’s 7% INCREASE. Overall, we have flattened out for the moment. The good news is that with the steady gains since 2016, many properties are back to their 2005-2007 market values.

Unfortunately, what is NOT factored into the average sales price, is the trend of Seller paid closing costs. 52% of January 2020’s sales included the Seller paying, on average, $4578 towards the Purchaser’s settlement fees at closing.

DAYS ON MARKET

01.2020_DOM

Jan 2020 STATS: Average 45 days / Median 20 days
% of Jan Sales “Under Contract” within..
- 15 Days or less = 41%
- 30 Days or less = 64%
- 45 Days or less = 70%

Interestingly, the active properties for Jan 2020 have been on the market 143 DOM. That’s 100 more days than the SOLD DOM for the month. Indicating, that most properties properly priced are moving quickly, while the others are sitting on the market getting stale.

NOVEMBER 2018 – Real Estate Market Recap: Augusta County, Staunton & Waynesboro

Posted on December 10, 2018 by katmcnicholas

RESIDENTIAL SALES: MONTH -TO- MONTH

11.2018_SALES

The number of sales hit an all-time high in 2005, with a total of 1598 closed transactions and a low in 2010, with 935. The market has gradually improved since then…

2013 = 1220 sales
2014 = 1383 sales
2015 = 1489 sales
2016 = 1511 sales
2017 = 1581 sales

November 2018 monthly sales (118) was an expected 11% DECREASE when compared to last month, October (133). (2017 had a similar 10% decrease from Oct-Nov.); Nov 2018 sales (118) was a 5% DECREASE from last year’s November sales (124).

November’s 2018 Year-to-Date sales, (1465) displays a negligible 1% DECREASE under November 2017 YTD sales, (1487).

November’s 12 Month Running Total (1611) mimics the YTD, with less than 1% Decrease under Nov 2017’s 12 Mo. Running Total, (1620). (This is a better predictor of our current market.)

RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY: MONTH -TO- MONTH…and the lack of inventory saga continues.

The number of active listings in Jan 2009 was 498, increased to a high of 1509 in Aug 2010. We started 2018 with 450 active listings, which was 20% LESS than Jan 2017. Historical lows in inventory began back in 2016, homebuyers and agents really started to feel its impact during the 3Q buying season. The end of 2016 deemd itself a “price-adjusting” year, cleaning out stale properties. 2017 followed a similar pattern with low inventory and price-adjusting. 2018’s inventory continues to be squeezed: Inventory opened up a tinie-tiny amount in May…but decreased again in June and was further depleted this Fall.

November 2018’s inventory is 18% LESS than Nov 2017; 36% LESS than Nov 2016; 50% LESS than Nov 2015.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE: MONTH -TO- MONTH…

With low supply, comes high demand…reflected in the increasing Average Sales Prices. We noticed a solid 6% INCREASE over the course of 2017, most dramatic in properties within the $250k and under price segment. November 2018 Average Sales Price ($231,966) is a whopping 31% INCREASE over Nov 2017 ($176,868, the lowest of the year). Nov 2018 ASP is a 12% INCREASE from last month, Oct 2018 ($204,382). Each month in 2018 has experienced its highest ASP, year-over-year, for the last five years.

*[November did have one unusual over $1M sale, which obviously contributed, but even with that transaction taken out of the calculated average, the month still experienced a five year high of $221,982].

[Unfortunately, what is NOT factored into the average sales price, is the average amount of seller paid concessions. In November 2018, 56% of sales transactions included seller paid closing costs. Of those transactions with seller paid concession, average paid was $5158 at settlement.] 28% of the Buyer’s from August’s transactions financed with gov’t backed loans, (i.e. FHA, VA, VHDA, and USDA). These loans offer no-to-low down payment features; 46% obtained conventional financing’ 15% were all-cash transactions.

Average Days on Market (DOM) for 2005 was 101 Days, and steadily increased to an all-time high of 177 days in April 2013.
2017’s DOM bumped around, but averaged out to an annual average of 77 Days.
Nov 2018 Stats: Average: 58 DOM / Median 33 DOM
% of November Sales Under Contract within…
- 36 % of monthly sales were pending within 15 Days
- 47 % of monthly sales were pending within 30 Days
- 71 % of monthly sales were pending within 60 Days

* FINAL THOUGHTS *

We are officially in the organic seasonal downshift of buying and selling real estate. With that said, this area is still experiencing much of a “seller’s market” supported by historically low inventory and equally historically high Average Sales Prices. Days on Market have continued to stay low, especially for those properties in the $250k and under price range.

Interest rates have been creeping higher, and predicted to continue through-out the year. This will propose yet another hurdle for potential buyers. Higher interest rates could also affect homeowners thinking about selling their property. Many could decide to stay put, not willing to buy their next homesweethome at the cost of a higher rate…continuing this low supply saga.

FOR SELLERS: Proper pricing & staging is key for a quick and smooth transaction. (Properties that are over-priced are idling on the MLS, while properly priced homes are continuing to move quickly. Revisit Days on Market Stats above.)
FOR BUYERS: Interest rates have been creeping upwards, and predicted to increase through-out the year. Remain in contact with your chosen lender to stay current with affordability, and request a Pre-Approval Letter to submit with any offer to display financial stability and strength. Don’t be surprised if you find yourself in a multiple-offer situation, competing for your dream home. Its essential for buyers to discuss with their real estate agent competitive offer strategy. Contract contingencies that were the norm just a few years ago, may not fly in this “multi-offer” market. When offering over list price, appraisal contingencies are a must, as appraisers catch up with 2018’s upward movement.

Happy Holidays!

Katherine

* This report was prepared by and for the use of Katherine McNicholas, Westhills Ltd. REALTORS. It is not to be copied in whole or in part without explicit permission of author.*

* All data based on information from the Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®, Inc. or Multiple Listing Service. All information is believed to be accurate, but cannot be guaranteed.