FEBRUARY 2020: Residential Real Estate Market Recap – Augusta County, Waynesboro & Staunton

 

02.2020_SNAPSHOT

RESIDENTIAL SALES

02.2020_SalesTransactions

 

  •  The number of sales hit an all-time high in 2005, with a total of 1598 closed transactions and a low in 2010, with 935. the market has gradually improved since then…with 2019 surpassing 2005’s sales;
    •  2015 = 1489 sales
    •  2016 = 1511 sales
    •  2017 = 1581 sales
    •  2018 = 1573 sales
    •  2019 = 1747 sales
  •  2020 has began mimicking the past, with the organic holiday downshift. (Fyi* Last year’s Spring market sales were strong in April. Displaying the initial buying take off beginning in March.) Comparable strong sale #’s pushed through-out the 2019 year. Feb ’20 (88) is a FLAT compared to last Feb ’19 (88).
  • Feb 2020 12 Mo. Running Total (1844) displays a slight 5 home DECREASE over last month’s total of (1850), and a 10.6% INCREASE from Feb 2019’s 12 Mo. Running Total (1668 sales).

LOW HOUSING INVENTORY

02.2020_Inventory

 

How low can you go?…Historic lows in inventory began back in 2016, truly felt the impact during the 3Q 2016 buying season. the end of 2016 deemed itself a “price adjusting” year, cleaning out stale properties. since then, the inventory has continued to be squeezed, opening-up a tinie bitin the Spring market…but swallowed up quickly & further depleted until the end of each year. In 2020, our inventory is at its lowest with 305 active properties.

  • Feb 2020 with 305 properties is a 13% < Feb 2019 (350) which is 32% < Feb 2018 (450) which is 49% < Feb 2017 (595) which is 59% < Feb 2016 (735).

AVERAGE SALES PRICES

02.2020_AveSalesPrice

 

With low supply, comes high demand…reflected in the increase in Sales Prices. We noticed an average of 7% INCREASE over the course of last year, (varying higher/lower depending on the price bracket.) Feb 2020’s ASP ($234,121) is a 3.1% INCREASE from Feb 2019 ($227,046) and a huge 15.5% INCREASE from last month, Jan 2019 ($202,633).

The 12 Month ASP is a more accurate predictor of sales trends. Feb ’20 12 Mo ASP ($227,596) displays a 5.3% INCREASE when compared to last year’s 12 Mo ASP ($216,130). This is a more consistent with last month’s approximate year-over-year 12 Mo ASP’s 6% INCREASE. Overall, we have flattened out for the moment. The good news is that with the steady gains since 2016, many properties are back to their 2005-2007 market values.

Unfortunately, what is NOT factored into the average sales price, is the trend of Seller paid closing costs. 47% of February 2020’s sales included the Seller paying, on average, $5154 towards the Purchaser’s settlement fees at closing.

DAYS ON MARKET

02.2020_DOM

 

Average Days on Market (DOM) for 2005 was 101 days. and steadily increased to an all time high of 177 days in April 2013. Low inventory has considerably dropped this number. 2019’s yearly average was 55 days, with a median DOM of 20 days. (* Normal Market is considered to be 90 days.)

  •  Feb 2020 STATS: Average 58 days / Median 26 days
  •  % of Feb Sales “Under Contract” within..
    •  15 Days or less = 57%
    •  30 Days or less = 63%
    •  45 Days or less = 67%

Interestingly, the active properties for Feb 2020 have been on the market 144 DOM. That’s 86 more days than the SOLD DOM for the month. Indicating, that most properties properly priced are moving quickly, while the others are sitting on the market getting stale.

 

[The information presented is deemed accurate, but not guaranteed. Data sourced from the Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS (GAAR) for Residential, Single Family homes in Augusta County, Waynesboro & Staunton Virginia; YTD 2020.]

JANUARY 2020: Residential Real Estate Market Recap – Augusta County, Waynesboro & Staunton

2020_SNAPSHOT

RESIDENTIAL SALES

01.2020_SalesTransactions

  •  The number of sales hit an all-time high in 2005, with a total of 1598 closed transactions and a low in 2010, with 935. the market has gradually improved since then…with 2019 surpassing 2005’s sales;
    •  2015 = 1489 sales
    •  2016 = 1511 sales
    •  2017 = 1581 sales
    •  2018 = 1573 sales
    •  2019 = 1747 sales
  •  2020 has began mimicking the past, with the organic holiday downshift. (Fyi* Last year’s Spring market sales were strong in April. Displaying the initial buying take off beginning in March.) Comparable strong sale #’s pushed through-out the 2019 year. Jan ’20 (95) is a 6.7% INCREASE compared to last Jan ’19 (89).
  • Jan 2020 12 Mo. Running Total (1850) displays a slight 5 home DECREASE over last month’s total of (1845), and a 10.6% INCREASE from Jan 2019’s 12 Mo. Running Total (1668 sales).

LOW HOUSING INVENTORY

01.2020_Inventory

How low can you go?…Historic lows in inventory began back in 2016, truly felt the impact during the 3Q 2016 buying season. the end of 2016 deemed itself a “price adjusting” year, cleaning out stale properties. since then, the inventory has continued to be squeezed, opening-up a tinie bitin the Spring market…but swallowed up quickly & further depleted until the end of each year. In 2020, our inventory is at its lowest with 335 active properties.

  • Jan 2020 with 335 properties is a 11% < Jan 2019 (375) which is 27% < Jan 2018 (460) which is 41% < Jan 2017 (565) which is 55% < Jan 2016 (750).

AVERAGE SALES PRICES

01.2020_AveSalesPrice

With low supply, comes high demand…reflected in the increase in Sales Prices. We noticed an average of 7% INCREASE over the course of last year, (varying higher/lower depending on the price bracket.) Jan 2020’s ASP ($202,633) is a 12.6 DECREASE from Jan 2019 ($232,049) & a 16% DECREASE from last month, Dec 2019 ($243,458).

The 12 Month ASP is a more accurate predictor of sales trends. Jan ’20 12 Mo ASP ($227,451) displays a 6% INCREASE when compared to last year’s 12 Mo ASP ($214,869). this is a more consistent with last month’s approximate year-over-year 12Mo ASP’s 7% INCREASE. Overall, we have flattened out for the moment. The good news is that with the steady gains since 2016, many properties are back to their 2005-2007 market values.

Unfortunately, what is NOT factored into the average sales price, is the trend of Seller paid closing costs. 52% of January 2020’s sales included the Seller paying, on average, $4578 towards the Purchaser’s settlement fees at closing.

DAYS ON MARKET

01.2020_DOM

Average Days on Market (DOM) for 2005 was 101 days. and steadily increased to an all time high of 177 days in April 2013. Low inventory has considerably dropped this number. 2019’s yearly average was 55 days, with a median DOM of 20 days. (* Normal Market is considered to be 90 days.)

  •  Jan 2020 STATS: Average 45 days / Median 20 days
  •  % of Jan Sales “Under Contract” within..
    •  15 Days or less = 41%
    •  30 Days or less = 64%
    •  45 Days or less = 70%

Interestingly, the active properties for Jan 2020 have been on the market 143 DOM. That’s 100 more days than the SOLD DOM for the month. Indicating, that most properties properly priced are moving quickly, while the others are sitting on the market getting stale.

 

[The information presented is deemed accurate, but not guaranteed. Data sourced from the Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS (GAAR) for Residential, Single Family homes in Augusta County, Waynesboro & Staunton Virginia; YTD 2020.]

DECEMBER 2016: Augusta County, Staunton & Waynesboro

12-16_snapshot2016_sales 12-16_inventoryI N  A  N U T S H E L L  .  .  .

○ We saw a naturally occurring DECREASE in sold transactions for the month of December. A 15% decrease from the November’s “5 year historical high for the month” sales. A more accurate reflection of the market would be the 12 Month-Running-Total, we saw a negligible decrease of 0.3% from last month. The market is slowly, slowly, slowly slowing down.

○  On the other side of the coin…Low Inventory is keeping everyone on their toes. Even with the slightly slower market, properly priced homes within the $150k – $250k range are going quick. (* Especially brick ranch homes, featuring one-level living, a nice dry basement for storage is a-plus.)

  • Average Days on Market = 95 Days, a 12% DECREASE in days from last month.
  • Median Days on Market = 56 Days, a slight 0.8% increase in days from last month.
  • Year-to-Date DOM = 98 Days (one day decrease from last month)
  • 42% of December’s sold inventory was on the market for 45 DAYS or LESS.
  • 27% of December’s sold inventory was on the market for 15 DAYS or LESS.

○  Average Sales Price – Yes, there was a decrease from October ($208,467) to November ($193,139), and then again to December ($190,263)…but overall in 2016, we have noticed a 3% INCREASE.

○  List Price vs. Sales Price – Staying steady with 97%, (Good news! That’s much better than the 94% average from first quarter!)

  • Sales Price vs. List Price: 32% of December’s sales were sold at 100% of their list price…or more!

A N Y T H I N G  E L S E ?  .  .  .

○  News Alert: Fee Cut by FHA Set to Benefit First-Time Buyers –  Read Virginia REALTOR’s blurb on reducing the fees associated with mortgage insurance premiums for First Time Home buyers… Anything helps when rates are increasing 😉 Temporarily Suspended.

As always, Questions…Comments? Call me.

*This report was prepared by and for the use of Westhills Ltd. REALTORS. It is not to be copied in whole or in part without explicit permission of Katherine McNicholas.

**All data based on information from the Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®, Inc. or Multiple Listing Service for the period 12.1.16 through 12.31.16. All information is believed to be accurate, but cannot be guaranteed.

 

NOVEMBER 2016: Augusta County, Staunton & Waynesboro

11-16_snapshot11-16_sales11-16_inventory

W H A T ‘ S   H O T . . .

○ INCREASE in real estate transactions, November 2016 (129 sales)  20% increase from last November’s sales (107). The increase in Nov’s numbers equalizes the 20% decrease we noted in last month’s sales. With that said, 2016’s Year-to-Date transactions are at a slight increase of 1.7%, (that is 24 more sold homes than the YTD in Nov. 2015.) The 12-month running total, (a more accurate reflection of the market), mirrors the YTD, with a 1.6% INCREASE from October.

○  Average Days on Market = 107 Days; Median Days on Market = 51 Days ; Year-to-Date DOM = 99 (this is probably the more reliable number.)

  • About 47% of November’s sold inventory was available on the market for 45 DAYS or LESS.
    • 53% of those sales were on the market for 15 DAYS or LESS.

○  Average Sales Price – Yes, there was a decrease from October ($208,467)…but overall, this area has noticed a 6% INCREASE in 2016. The historically low inventory is slowly pushing prices up, as well as creating somewhat of a seller’s market. Appropriately priced homes, especially those under $200k, are flying off of the shelves!

  • Sales Price vs. List Price: 37% of November’s sales were sold at 99% of their list price…or more.
  • Seller Paid Closing Costs – 46% of transactions incl. these terms, with an average of $4823 paid.

According to Absorption Rates, Interested in which price bracket moved the fastest in November?…

  • 1.9 Months – $200,000 – $209,999 (10 currently active listings / 32 sales in the last 6 months)
  • 2.1 Months – $100,000 – $109,999 (10 currently active listings / 29 sales in the last 6 months)
  • 2.1 Months – $170,000 – $179,999 (18 currently active listings / 51 sales in the last 6 months)
  • 2.5 Months – $210,000 – $219,999 (18 currently active listings / 44 sales in the last 6 months)
  • 2.7 Months – $150,000 – $159,999 (23 currently active listings / 52 sales in the last 6 months)

W H A T ‘ S   N O T . . .

○ Selling your home at $400,000 and above. They represented only 1% of November’s sales. The absorption rate for this price bracket is over one year…yes, I said YEAR…and it just keeps getting longer the higher you go up in price. Again, it is all about perspective though…it IS beneficial to be a buyer in this price range because of the lack of other buyer competitors.

○ Low appraisals – Appraisers use previous sales when calculating value. Remember, that the sales prices reflected in comparables are even older than their closing date. The price was negotiated, at least, a month prior to the closing, possibly three months prior. The uptick in pricing occurring at the moment won’t be found in the comps. If an appraisal comes in low…its back to the table for all parties. A pretty stressful event, especially as banks delay the appraisal until the last minute.

On to December, my friends.

As always, Questions…Comments? Call me.

*This report was prepared by and for the use of Westhills Ltd. REALTORS. It is not to be copied in whole or in part without explicit permission of Katherine McNicholas.

**All data based on information from the Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®, Inc. or Multiple Listing Service for the period 11.1.16 through 11.30.16. All information is believed to be accurate, but cannot be guaranteed.

 

OCTOBER 2016: Augusta County, Staunton & Waynesboro

10-16_snapshot10-16_sales10-16_inventory

W H A T ‘ S   H O T . . .

○  INCREASE in Average Sales Price…a 16.5% increase since Jan 2016. Whoppers. October’s average sales price was $208,900, that is a 2016 high, folks.

  • 52% of October’s transactions included seller paid closing costs, an average of $4850 was paid.

○  Average Days on Market = 96 Days; Median Days on Market = 56 Days  (**A normal market is considered to be 90-120 days. Besides that blip in the spring when Average DOM jumped to over 170 Days, we have been in a normal market all year. )

  • About 46% of October’s sold inventory was available on the market for 30 DAYS or LESS.
    • 50% of those sales were on the market for 15 DAYS or LESS.

○  Based off of the running 12 month’s sales, October’s absorption rate is at 7 months. (This reflects a slightly slower market.)

*Absorption Rate = the number of all active listings, including pending sales, divided by the number of monthly sales. It represents the number of months it would take to sell the actively listed properties currently on the market if no other properties were added, 6 Months is considered “normal”. So, in October 2016 it would take 7 months to sell everything active, (including those homes Under Contract.) This number can be broken down by price range, location, etc.

According to Absorption Rates, Interested in which price bracket moved the fastest in October?…

  • 2.1 Months – $200,000-$209,900 (10 currently active listings / 28 sales in the last 6 months)
  • 2.6 Months – $170,000-$179,999 (20 currently active listings / 47 sales in the last 6 months)
  • 2.7 Months – $100,000-$109,999 (12 currently active listings / 27 sales in the last 6 months)
  • 2.9 Months – $210,000-219,999 (19 currently active listings / 40 sales in the last 6 months)

W H A T ‘ S   N O T . . .

○ The organic decline in sales associated with Fall and the busy, busy, busy holiday season. Don’t fret, October 2016 Year-to-date residential sales (1265) compared to October 2015 Year-to-date (1265) is even. When comparing month-to-month…

  • DECLINE in October 2016 sales (101) vs. October 2015 sales (129).
  • Slight DECREASE of 1.1% in the 12 month running total. (Slowing of the market.)

○ Housing inventory down 3% from September 2016…the inventory is almost level with last winter, Dec 2015. Can it go any lower? What will happen this Spring? The anticipation is killing me!

On to November, my friends!

As always, Questions…Comments? Call me.

*This report was prepared by and for the use of Westhills Ltd. REALTORS. It is not to be copied in whole or in part without explicit permission of Katherine McNicholas.

**All data based on information from the Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®, Inc. or Multiple Listing Service for the period 10.1.16 through 10.31.16. All information is believed to be accurate, but cannot be guaranteed.

 

SEPTEMBER 2016: Augusta County, Staunton & Waynesboro

09-16_snapshot09-16_sales09-16_inventory

W H A T ‘ S   H O T . . .

○ “…and the saga continues…” Who thought the inventory could get any lower? Well, it has. 15% lower than last year. Are you thinking about selling your home? Stop thinking…and start DOING. This is your moment.

○  The lack of supply has caused a slight INCREASE of 3.4% in Average Sales Price from August. Overall, 2016 has been more stable within in the $180k (low in Jan.) – $200k (high in July) range. An improvement from the past few years, which has been all over the board.

  • 30% of September’s transactions sold for 100% OR MORE of Listing Price.

○  Average Days on Market = 85 Days; Median Days on Market = 45 Days  (**A normal market is considered to be 90-120 days. Besides that blip in the spring when Average DOM jumped to over 170 Days, we have been in a normal market all year. )

  • About 40% of September’s Sales were available on the market for 30 DAYS or LESS.
    • 68.5% of those sales were on the market for 15 DAYS or LESS.

○  For a broader Virginia snapshot, Check out Commonwealth Daily’s 3rd Quarter Real Estate Report.

W H A T ‘ S   N O T . . .

○ Folks, I think we have started the seasonal Autumn sales decline. September 2016 (140 sales) saw 11% LESS closed transactions than August 2016 (158 sales). Don’t fret, September 2016 residential sales (140) compared to September 2015 (139) is basically a wash. Even with the decline in sales as we head into colder weather…

  • Sept 2016’s Year-To-Date sales slight INCREASE of 1.4% over September 2015 Year-To-Date sales.
  • Sept 2016’s 12 Month Running Total (1512) is a 0.3% INCREASE over last month’s.

○ The decrease in sales during the “slower” winter months could hamper attitudes towards putting your house on the market. Two items to digest…

  1. The historic low in available inventory provides less competition for those anxiously trying to sell their home. This is very good.
  2. The quality of buyers looking for homes in the winter are s-e-r-i-o-u-s. Meaning, their intention and motivation for looking is fo’ real. Spring and summer weekend house-hunting can turn into a hobby for some buyers. If people are fighting the wind and cold during the holiday season to view your property…they aren’t messin’ around.

 

As always, Questions…Comments? Call me. May the Force be with you.

*This report was prepared by and for the use of Westhills Ltd. REALTORS. It is not to be copied in whole or in part without explicit permission of Katherine McNicholas.

**All data based on information from the Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®, Inc. or Multiple Listing Service for the period 9.1.16 through 9.30.16. All information is believed to be accurate, but cannot be guaranteed.

 

AUGUST 2016: Augusta County, Staunton & Waynesboro

08-16_snapshot08-16_inventory08-16_sales

W H A T ‘ S   H O T . . .

○ We are still historically LOW-LOW-LOW with existing inventory. This has been great for sellers with appropriately priced listings under $300,000. For buyers, not so much…(see below.)

○  Residential Loan Interest rates are still LOW-LOW-LOW as well. (Click here for more on Kiplinger’s report on their predicted rate increase in December.)

○ The percentage of Sale Price to List Price has increased to 97.7% in August 2016. (**This percentage was at its lowest in the Winter of 2012 at 92%; and hovered around the 94%-95% range for last couple of years.)

  • 39% of August’s transactions sold for 100% OR MORE of Listing Price

○ August 2016 (158 sales) saw 8 more closed transactions than July 2016 (150 sales). August 2016 residential sales were 10.5% higher than last year’s August. (Commonwealth Daily has reported a 12.5% increase in Virginia’s 2016 August vs. 2015 August sales. This article attributes it to an inventory increase…which we didn’t see here in the Valley.)

  • Year-To-Date sales slight INCREASE of 1.3% over August 2015 Year-To-Date sales.
  • August 2016 saw the same 1.3% INCREASE in the 12 Month Running Total of Sales over last month.

○  Average Days on Market = 82 Days; Median Days on Market = 50 Days  (**A normal market is considered to be 90-120 days. Besides that blip in the spring when Average DOM jumped to over 170 Days, we have been in a normal market all year. )

  • 40% of August’s Sales were available on the market for 30 DAYS or LESS.
    • 63% of those sales were on the market for 10 DAYS or LESS

 

W H A T ‘ S   N O T . . .

○ Inventory is LOW-LOW-LOW. Appropriately priced listings are not lasting long. Buyers should be working as a team with their real estate professional. That means, you may need to go see homes at inconvenient times. Point being…if you think a home may be “the one”, make the effort to get in there before it slips away. With the Fall season right around the corner, the “buyer competition” will probably slow down, but if inventory stays at this historical low, one will still need to move faster than usual.

Average Sales Price DECREASE…August 2016’s Average Sales Price was $184,666…

  • …an 8% DECREASE when compared to July 2016, ($200,725).
  • …a 5.5% DECREASE when compared to August 2015 ($195,498).

Tootles.

*This report was prepared by and for the use of Westhills Ltd. REALTORS. It is not to be copied in whole or in part without explicit permission of Katherine McNicholas.

**All data based on information from the Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®, Inc. or Multiple Listing Service for the period 8.1.16 through 8.31.16. All information is believed to be accurate, but cannot be guaranteed.

 

JULY 2016: Augusta County, Staunton & Waynesboro

BICENTENNIAL babies, those born in the Year of the Dragon…REPRESENT! July 2016 may not have been a record month in the history of real estate…but by-goodness, I turned 40, and I’m pumped. Here’s to another 40 years! Okay, enough about me, scroll below for your July 2016 real estate monthly snapshot…07-16_snapshot07-16_inventory07-16_sales

W H A T ‘ S   H O T . . .

○ July saw no increase in sold transactions, but we did see an increase in Market Volume ( INCREASE of $1.2 million), thus an INCREASE in Average Sales Prices.

  • Average Sales Price INCREASE – July’s Average Sales Price, $200,725; compared to June’s $192,600.
  • 43% of July’s Sales sold for 99% OR MORE of their Listing Price.
  • Hooray for the $350k – $399k price range market. They officially nudged their way out of the 3% pie slice. They represented 6% of sold properties in July.

○  Average Days on Market = 94 Days; Median Days on Market = 47 Days

  • Close to 50% of the closed transactions in July were on the market for 45 DAYS OR LESS.

W H A T ‘ S   N O T . . .

○ Compared to last year: July 2015, (160 sales) had 10 more sales than July 2016, (150). You can see from the visual, that 2015 had a rocky and unpredictable spring season, with an apex in July. This year, Spring 2016 was more consistent. July 2016’s YTD sales, (847) is a negligible 7 sales away from July’s 2015’s YTD sales, (854).

○ Another item of note that may have affected our local market, was the school calendar switch-a-roo. All of the schools ’round here began the first week of August. Yes, that makes for busy-busy summer vacation & obligation cramming within the shortened break. It also means school supply shopping in July…it’s not right, ya’ll!

*This report was prepared by and for the use of Westhills Ltd. REALTORS. It is not to be copied in whole or in part without explicit permission of Katherine McNicholas.

**All data based on information from the Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®, Inc. or Multiple Listing Service for the period 7.1.16 through 7.31.16. All information is believed to be accurate, but cannot be guaranteed.

 

JUNE 2016: Augusta County, Staunton & Waynesboro

It’s TOO DARN HOT and HUMID to think of anything witty at the moment. Please, enjoy the tantalizing charts and info below, as I am melting in the corner with an iced coffee…

06.16_SNAPSHOT06.16_INVENTORY06.16_SALES

W H A T ‘ S   H O T . . .

○ DEJA- VU –  Housing inventory is STILL historically low, yet the amount of closed transactions are increasing, making a pretty curve for the chart.

  • Compared to last month: June 2016 Sales (150) is an 6% INCREASE from May 2016 Sales (141)
  • Average Sales Price slight increase – June 2016 Average Sales Price, $192,600 compared to last month’s, $191,935.

○  Averaliljonge Days on Market = 97 Days; Median Days on Market = 47 Days……YEH-AH! (Said in best Lil’ Jon’s voice.)

  •           •  Close to 40% of the closed transactions in June were on the market for 30 DAYS OR LESS.
  •           •  Of those 40% homes sold, 41% sold at 100% or more of their List Price.

○ LAND SALES  are up and up, and away – As mentioned in a previous post, I was wondering how this low-inventory was going to affect the new construction in our market. I will let the bars speak for itself.LandSales_todate_7.13.16

 

○  ALL THE SINGLE LADIES, all the single ladies…” Per a recent article in REALTOR Mag, Single female homebuyers are the second largest home buying group, representing 18% of the whole, (married couples come in first at 54%.)  Discover how these single women are changing the home buying market, Read RISMedia’s Housecall article HERE.

W H A T ‘ S   N O T . . .

○  Higher priced inventory – Homes priced above $400,000 are at a standstill in our neck of the woods. On a positive note, if you are a buyer looking in this price range, there some beautiful homes to be had with little “other buyer” competition.

○ Compared to last year: June 2015 had 5 more sales than June 2016. You can see from the visual, that 2015 had a rocky and unpredictable spring season, with a skyrocket in June. This year, Spring 2016 was more consistent. We are 3 sales away from 2015’s YTD sales. Let’s see where June’s 235 pending sales places us in July.

Ciao.

*This report was prepared by and for the use of Westhills Ltd. REALTORS. It is not to be copied in whole or in part without explicit permission of Katherine McNicholas.

**All data based on information from the Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®, Inc. or Multiple Listing Service for the period 6.1.16 through 6.30.16. All information is believed to be accurate, but cannot be guaranteed.