RESIDENTIAL SALES: MONTH -TO- MONTH

The number of sales hit an all-time high in 2005, with a total of 1598 closed transactions and a low in 2010, with 935. The market has gradually improved since then…

• 2013 = 1220 sales
• 2014 = 1383 sales
• 2015 = 1489 sales
• 2016 = 1511 sales
• 2017 = 1581 sales

August 2018 monthly sales (146) displayed a slight 4.5% DECREASE when compared to last month, July (153); and a noted DECREASE from August 2017’s number of sales (167).

August’s 2018 Year-to-Date sales, (1066)  shows a marginal 2.4% DECREASE under August 2017 YTD sales, (1092).

August 12 Month Running Total (1754) displays a negligible 0.5 Decrease under August 2017’s 12 Mo. Running Total, (1732). (This is a better predictor of our current market.)

RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY: MONTH -TO- MONTH…that red line CONTINUES to look so lonely.

The number of active listings in Jan 2009 was 498, increased to a high of 1509 in Aug 2010. We started 2018 with 450 active listings, which was 20% LESS than Jan 2017. Historical lows in inventory began back in 2016, homebuyers and agents really started to feel its impact during the 3Q buying season. The end of 2016 deemd itself a “price-adjusting” year, cleaning out stale properties. 2017 followed a similar pattern with low inventory and price-adjusting. 2018’s inventory continues to be squeezed: Inventory opened up a tinie-tiny amount in May…but slightly decreased again in June and remained in the mid-400’s in August.

• August 2018’s inventory is 23% LESS than Aug 2017; 41% LESS than Aug 2016; 52% LESS than Aug 2015.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE: MONTH -TO- MONTH…

With low supply, comes high demand…reflected in the increasing Average Sales Prices. We noticed a solid 6% INCREASE over the course of 2017, most dramatic in properties within the $250k and under price segment. August 2018 Average Sales Price ($216,911) is 0.5% DECREASE than August 2017 ($218,137, which happened to be the highest monthly ASP of last year). Up until last month, every month has experienced its highest ASP year-over-year for the last 5 years.

[Unfortunately, what is NOT factored into the average sales price, is the average amount of seller paid concessions. In August 2018, 55% of sales transactions included seller paid closing costs. Of those transactions with seller paid concession, average paid was ~$5039 at settlement.] 31% of the Buyer’s from August’s transactions financed with gov’t backed loans, (i.e. FHA, VA, VHDA, and USDA). These loans offer no-to-low down payment features, further supporting the trend of many buyers not having liquid funds when purchasing.

• Average Days on Market (DOM) for 2005 was 101 Days, and steadily increased to an all-time high of 177 days in April 2013.
• 2017’s DOM bumped around, but averaged out to an annual average of 77 Days.
• Aug 2018 Stats: Average: 47 DOM / Median 26 DOM
• % of August Sales Under Contract within…
  • 43 % of monthly sales were pending within 15 Days
  • 55% of monthly sales were pending within 30 Days
  • 68 % of monthly sales were pending within 45 Days

* FINAL THOUGHTS *

We are currently sliding into the organic seasonal downshift in buying activity. With that said, historically low inventory is keeping Average Sales Prices up and Days on Market down for now. Its a somewhat challenging market for homebuyers out there, especially those seeking in the under $250k range. Its essential for buyers to discuss with their real estate agent competitive offer strategy. Contract contingencies that were the norm just a few years ago, may not fly in this “multi-offer” market. When offering over list price, appraisal contingencies are a must, as appraisers catch up with 2018’s upward movement.

Proper property pricing from the seller’s side is key for a quick and smooth transaction. (Properties that are over-priced are idling on the MLS, while properly priced homes are continuing to fly off of the shelves. Revisit Days on Market Stats above.)

Interest rates have been creeping higher, and predicted to continue through-out the year. This will propose yet another hurdle for potential buyers. Higher interest rates could also affect homeowners thinking about selling their property. Many could decide to stay put, not willing to buy their next homesweethome with the cost of higher rates…continuing this low supply saga.

Excited to see what Fall 2018 will bring! – Katherine

* This report was prepared by and for the use of Katherine McNicholas, Westhills Ltd. REALTORS. It is not to be copied in whole or in part without explicit permission of author.*

* All data based on information from the Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®, Inc. or Multiple Listing Service. All information is believed to be accurate, but cannot be guaranteed.*